What is in-market forecasting?

In-market forecasting refers to predicting the future sales, demand, or uptake of pharmaceutical products that are already launched and available for purchase in the market. Unlike pre-launch forecasting (which estimates potential demand before a product’s release), in-market forecasting focuses on predicting performance based on actual sales data, market dynamics, and other real-world factors. It helps companies make informed decisions about inventory, production, marketing, and strategic planning.

Key Components of In-Market Forecasting

• Historical Sales Data: The most critical element, historical sales data provides a basis for understanding past trends and behaviors of a product.
• Market Conditions: Changes in regulations, healthcare policies, competitor activities, or economic conditions can influence demand.
• Product Lifecycle Stage: The product’s current stage (e.g., launch, growth, maturity, or decline) influences how forecasts are made.
• Seasonality: Some products (e.g., vaccines or cold medicines) may have seasonal demand patterns.
• Market Share and Competitor Dynamics: Forecasts account for how a product is performing compared to competitors and if the competition is intensifying or weakening.
• Promotional Activities: Changes in marketing, physician outreach, patient education, or price adjustments affect demand.

Why In-Market Forecasting is Crucial

• Supply Chain Optimization: Avoid stockouts or overproduction, which can lead to wasted resources or lost sales.
• Strategic Decision-Making: Helps align marketing and sales strategies with actual demand.
• Financial Planning: Accurate forecasts ensure proper allocation of budgets and financial resources.
• Regulatory and Pricing Adjustments: In-market forecasts also guide how the company may need to adjust pricing strategies based on market uptake.

In summary, in-market forecasting is a dynamic tool that adapts to real-time market conditions to guide the ongoing strategy and operations for a pharmaceutical product post-launch.

For a comprehensive learning experience, enrolling in a specialized course like Royed Training’s Pharma Forecasting course is a highly recommended approach. This course focuses on the pharmaceutical industry’s unique forecasting challenges, offering practical insights into in-market forecasting techniques.